BC Liberals catching up to the NDP

Joe · May 3, 2013

Latest BC election 2013 poll results according to Forum Research:

http://bc2013.com/2013/05/02/forum-research-poll-ndp-39-bcl-35-grn-12/

So, it could be a very close election.

No winner for certain...Election is not in the bag yet.

lumix · May 3, 2013

Tough choices, would likely see increase in personal income taxes in a NDP government Liberals selling off assets to balance budget NDP plan implies a significantly larger deficit

1) Is the Liberal’s 2013 budget really balanced? The NDP argues the “real Liberal deficit” is $790 million.

Werner Antweiler, UBC Sauder School of Business:
“Their proposed balanced budget relies on the one-off sales of assets and somewhat optimistic assumptions for curbing the growth of health-care expenditures.”

“This may work for the current fiscal year, but more work will be needed to keep the budget on a trajectory to remain balanced. This means either cutting expenditures or raising taxes.”

Kevin Milligan, of UBC’s School of Economics:
“There is a plan for a balanced budget, but we won’t know if the plan worked until 2014. Until then, we can assess whether their plan is sensible or not, and opinions vary.”

Steeve Mongrain, Simon Fraser University economics:
“Even if you believe the budget is balanced or not, it comes down to policy decisions. The Liberals have made a decision to sell off a set of their assets, though it’s not clear what set.”

James Brander, UBC Sauder School of Business:
“I agree with the NDP on this one. Assets sales should not be used to ‘balance’ the operating budget.”

2) With $2.032 billion of proposed spending in its platform, can the NDP keep its promise and not spend more than the “real Liberal deficit?”

Antweiler:
“The NDP is rather optimistic if they believe that the new initiatives that they have proposed can be kept under a billion dollars. They will either have to prioritize what they wish to accomplish ... or they will indeed incur a much larger budget deficit.”

“In short, both the Liberals and the NDP make somewhat optimistic assumptions....However, the NDP plan implies a significantly larger deficit.”

Milligan:
“I don’t know if Mr. Dix will keep his promise. If elected, he will face very tough decisions from a lot of people looking for increased spending.”

Mongrain:
“In this case, the NDP looks like they did quite a good job being careful with cost estimates. It adds up, the platform seems sound.”

Brander:
“I agree with the Liberals on this one. The NDP promises will cost a lot more than they claim once public-sector unions go the bargaining table expecting a payoff for their political support.”

3) Who is right about the Jobs Plan? The NDP has growth rates pegged as ninth in Canada, while the Liberals claim it leads the country in job creation, with 32,000 new jobs created between August 2011 and August 2012.

Antweiler:
“Since the launch of the jobs plan in September 2011, the province has gained about 8,000 total jobs. However, while more jobs were created in the public sector, the private sector has lost a significant number of jobs (35,000).”

Milligan:
“Arbitrary starting and ending points are the stuff of political spin. I would look at Statistics Canada year-over-year changes.”

Mongrain:
“It’s really important to look at per-capita numbers.... We’re doing about the same as Ontario and Quebec ... but not as good as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.”

Brander:
“Both statements are misleading. There are too many complications for a simple number like this to tell the real story. However, I would say that the Liberal record over the past decade has been good.”

Metro Vancouver, Matt Kieltyka
Click to expand...

Log in or Sign up

BC Liberals catching up to the NDP

Joe Full Member

lumix Full Member

You May Also Like...

Share This Page